Shenzhen Airport (000089): Performance meets expectations Expansion project completed in 2021

Shenzhen Airport (000089): Performance meets expectations Expansion project completed in 2021

At present, the third runway of Shenzhen Airport is approved. The completion of the expansion project will 杭州桑拿网 reach 80 million passengers. The internationalization and traffic realization will continue to increase the performance. At the same time, the three projects will be completed and put into operation in 21 years. The cost may increase.The company’s EPS in 19, 20, and 21 were 0.

38, 0.

43, 0.

39 yuan, corresponding to the current sustainable PE is 23.

4, 20.

5, 22.

9 times.

At present, the average global airport is 25-30x PE, with a target price of 11 yuan, and maintains the “strong recommendation-A” rating.

Shenzhen Airport announced a quarterly report, and profits were in line with expectations.

In Q1 of 19, Shenzhen Airport achieved revenue of 9.

1.4 billion (+8.

4%), net profit attributable to mother 1.

7.3 billion (+9.

73% yoy), the basic EPS is 0.

0843 yuan (+9.

62%), with an expected ROE of 1.

48%, ten years +0.

08 tablets

Q1 passenger explodes +7 per second.

9%, aviation demand has grown steadily.

The number of landings and landings at Shenzhen Airport in Q1 19 was 9.

20,000, +4 a year.

At 7%, the passenger tungsten was 1319.

660,000 person-times, at least +7.

9%, operating data basically in line with expectations, aviation demand has grown steadily.

With the construction of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area airport group and the continuous development of international routes, we maintain the judgment of the rapid growth of Shenzhen Airport’s business volume. It is expected that the number of passenger explosions in 19 years will increase by + 9%, and the number of international passengers will increase by + 25%, increasing the proportionTo 10% or more.

The third runway received a birth permit, and it is expected that 80 million passengers will explode in 2030.

On April 16, 19, the Development and Reform Commission formally approved the third highway expansion project. It is expected that it will accommodate 80 million passengers in 2030, and the current annual fracture is only 45.84 million. There is room for doubling growth in the long run.

At present, Shenzhen Airport is in the period of cumulative expansion. The third transition, the satellite hall and T3 adaptive transformation project have begun. It is expected to be completed in 21 years, and the target passenger will explode about 52 million times. At the same time, the satellite hall will bring duty-free and commercial,Advertising will be re-tendered, and the growth rate of non-aviation revenue will be greatly increased, and the ability to realise traffic will be further enhanced.

The total investment of the three projects is about 168 trillion, and the cost end will be under pressure in 2021.

The company currently has a total investment of 93 on the third runway.

500 million, the total investment of the satellite hall and T3 reconstruction project is 74.

500 million, the total investment of the three projects is 16.8 billion.

According to the project plan, it is expected to be completed in 2021, and the cost end may face pressure: 1) the conversion of the construction in progress will bring a significant increase in depreciation; 2) the commissioning of the satellite hall will bring about labor costs, management costs and hydropower costs.

It is expected that the company’s performance will be a low point in 2021, but then there will be a significant improvement in business volume. In the long term, aviation + non-fee revenue will open up room for growth.

Investment proposal The current third runway of Shenzhen Airport has been formally approved by the Development and Reform Commission. In the future, there will be double the space for passenger explosions. Internationalization and traffic realization will continue to increase performance. At the same time, the three projects will be completed and put into operation in 21 years. Costs may increase. We maintain our profit forecast.It is expected that the company’s EPS in 19, 20 and 21 will be 0.

38, 0.

43, 0.
39 yuan, corresponding to the current sustainable PE is 23.
4, 20.

5, 22.

9 times.

At present, the average global airport is 25-30x PE, with a target price of 11 yuan, and maintains the “strong 苏州夜网论坛 recommendation-A” rating.

Risk reminder Macroeconomic growth rate: The degree of prosperity of the macro economy affects the level of consumption of residents and the import and export of goods, which affects the market demand for air passenger transportation and affects the company’s business development and operating performance.

Bad weather and natural disasters: Extreme weather affects air travel, putting pressure on the airport’s operation and management.

Major operational safety accidents: Once a major safety accident occurs, it will adversely affect the company’s production and operation and financial status.