Tongwei shares (600438): Silicon material profits increase to increase battery prices or will bottom out

Tongwei shares (600438): Silicon material profits increase to increase battery prices or will bottom out
event.Company at 8.15 released the semi-annual report for 2019, and achieved operating income of 161 in the first half of the year.24 ppm, an increase of 29 in ten years.39%; net profit attributable to mother 14.51 ppm, an increase of 58 in ten years.01%.Divided by single quarter, 19Q2 achieved operating income of 99.55 ppm, an increase of 37 in ten years.51%; net profit attributable to mother 9.60 ppm, an increase of 60 in ten years.50%. Domestic demand led the release in the second half of the year.According to the “General Situation of State Subsidy Bidding Work for Photovoltaic Power Projects in 2019” released by the Energy Bureau on July 11, the 19-year bidding compensation scope installed capacity reached 22.79GW, the Energy Bureau estimates that the installed capacity for grid connection within the year will be 40-45GW; we believe that bidding is the most important component of domestic demand in 19 years, combined with the first batch of affordable projects introduced, domestic demand is expected to increase rapidly in the second half of the yearGlobal demand has reached a new level. We expect that global installed demand in 19 years is expected to reach 125-130GW. Silicon material: The release of new capacity is expected to boost profitability in the second half of the year.According to the company’s semi-annual report, sales of high-purity crystalline silicon in the first half of the year2.28 benchmarks, gross margin 16.98%; the company ‘s restructured 2 injection high-purity crystalline silicon production capacity reached full production and sales. At present, the proportion of single crystal materials exceeds 80%; the company ‘s new production capacity in Baotou and Leshan has reached 100 in March and June, respectively.The output per ton / day, the production cost meets the set goal of less than 4 million / ton, the proportion 青岛夜网 of single crystal materials will continue to reach 80-85% in Q3 and Q4 degrees; according to PVInfolink statistics, August 14The average price is 75 yuan / kg, which is significantly higher than the cauliflower material 57 yuan / kg. We believe that the company’s new capacity contribution in the second half of the year is significantly better than the first half. The proportion of single crystal materials continues to increase at the same time. The profitability of silicon materials is expected to increase in the second half of the year. Cells: Price bottoms expected to rebound.According to PV Infolink statistics, the average price of single crystal PERC cells replaces 0.91 yuan / W, which has fallen below the cash cost level of the old PERC production line. It is expected that the price is close to the low point of this year 南京夜网 and it is difficult to continue to lower it. We believe that gradually the internal demand is gradually released and the battery price is expected to bottom out and it is expected thatThe price can be returned to 0.95-1.0 yuan / W; the company ‘s battery chips continued to be fully produced and sold in the first half of the year, with sales of about 6GW, an increase of 97% per year. Tongwei Solar, a subsidiary of the company, contributed a net profit of 9 in the first half of the year.77 ppm; other companies have started the Chengdu Phase IV and Meishan Phase I battery projects. It is expected to be put into production from the end of 19 to the first half of 2020, when the company’s production capacity will reach 20GW. Profit forecast and investment rating.We estimate the company’s net profit attributable to mothers to be 29 in 2019-21.74, 37.26, 46.92 ppm, EPS is 0.77, 0.96, 1.21 yuan; with reference to comparable valuation in the same industry in 19 years, according to 20-25 times PE in 2019, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 15.40-19.25 yuan, given a “preliminary market” rating. risk warning.Policy fluctuations; increased competition; replacement of new technologies; product price fluctuations.